Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the Business Agency (100ppi. com), after the price of natural rubber fell to the lowest point of 11,170 RMB/ton at the end of October, the spot price of natural rubber in the East China market rebounded 4.94% in November, rose only 1.88% in the first half of December, and fell by 1.76% from 12,250 RMB/ton in the second half to 29, of which the fluctuation range of natural rubber was only 0.74% in the last week of December.
Industrial factors: from the supply side, the rubber production in domestic production areas has decreased seasonally. Yunnan production areas have stopped cutting, and Hainan production areas have almost stopped cutting at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month. The supply pressure on the domestic supply side decreased, the price of domestic latex was relatively firm, the market trend was temporarily stable, the indicators of substitute index glue increased, and the import glue continued to increase; In Southeast Asia, the price of latex in Thailand and Vietnam has stabilized and the export volume has continued to increase. Imported rubber from China’s main ports has successively arrived in Hong Kong. The social inventory has accumulated, and the price fluctuates slightly. From the demand side, the current market is in the off-season: tire enterprises basically finished stocking up years ago, the pressure on finished tire inventory is high, and domestic and foreign demand continues to be sluggish. Recently, affected by the policy liberalization of public health events, the number of infected people has increased in a short period of time, and the resumption of production of enterprises is limited. In addition, the New Year’s Day and the Spring Festival holiday are coming, many enterprises have holidays ahead of time, the order volume of natural rubber has dropped significantly, and the market situation tends to be flat.
From December 24-28, international crude oil increased slightly by about 2%. Among them, on December 25, the settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was about 77.49 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 81.67 dollars/barrel; On December 28, the settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 78.96 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 83.99 dollars/barrel.
From the comparison chart of previous years, the natural rubber market in 2022 is lower than that in previous years. In the last week of December, as the pre holiday stocking has basically ended, and the number of infected people has increased in the short term after the opening of the national immunization policy, the number of logistics and factory workers has decreased sharply, downstream enterprises are also limited to start work, demand is low, orders are shrinking, New Year’s Day and Spring Festival holidays are coming, some enterprises have already taken holidays in advance, and the upward trend of natural rubber supported by the supply reduction and the good stock of factories in the early stage has gradually stabilized, but it has only fluctuated slightly in the near future. With regard to the future market, it is expected that the market will tend to be flat in the short term. After the year, as Vietnam and Thailand reduce production or even stop cutting, the supply side will be at the lowest level of the year. In addition, after the Spring Festival, the product factory will start to operate, the demand will start in the new year, and the market will repeat the seasonal upward trend. It is necessary to focus on whether personnel mobility during the Spring Festival will cause the second wave of infection after the policy of public health events is released, and whether it will affect the commencement of rubber products factories.